The Coming Catastrophe?

Editor’s Note: This is a very thought provoking piece by David DeBatto that was posted over at Global Research on the implications of an attack on Iran by either the war crazed neocon Bush-Cheney junta desperate to close the deal on 9/11 as a transformative event or an even more paranoid and delusional Israeli government intent on turning the Middle East into a raging piece of hell on Earth. This is the attack that will most certainly ignite World War III, destroy the United States as a functional entity as well as forever chain it to historical infamy much like the Nazis and quite possibly bring on that much desired Armageddon by the Christian Zionist tools of the Mossad and other extremist elements of that human rights abusing shitbox that through either infiltration, bribery or blackmail gained an extraordinary amount of control over American foreign and domestic policy. Suppose they threw a Rapture party and nobody flew up dirty nasty butt naked to sit at the foot of God’s throne and watch the show but just perished along with the rest of us heathens in the conflagration?

The Coming Catastrophe?

The finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iran

By David DeBatto (Global Research)

“Israel has said a strike on Iran will be “unavoidable” if the Islamic regime continues to press ahead with alleged plans for building an atom-bomb.” (London Daily Telegraph, 6/11/2008)

“Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany joined President Bush on Wednesday in calling for further sanctions against Iran if it does not suspend its uranium enrichment program.” Mr. Bush stressed again that “all options are on the table,” which would include military force. (New York Times, 6/11/2008)

We are fast approaching the final six months of the Bush administration. The quagmire in Iraq is in its sixth painful year with no real end in sight and the forgotten war in Afghanistan is well into its seventh year. The “dead enders” and other armed factions are still alive and well in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan again controls most of that country. Gas prices have now reached an average of $4.00 a gallon nationally and several analysts predict the price will rise to $5.00-$6.00 dollars per gallon at the pump by Labor Day. This, despite assurances by some major supporters of the decision to invade Iraq that the Iraq war “will pay for itself” (Paul Wolfowitz) or that we will see “$20.00 per barrel” oil prices if we invade Iraq (Rupert Murdoch).

One thing the Pentagon routinely does (and does very well) is conduct war games. Top brass there are constantly developing strategies for conducting any number of theoretical missions based on real or perceived threats to our national security or vital interests. This was also done prior to the invasion of Iraq, but the Bush administration chose not to listen to the dire warnings about that mission given to him by Pentagon leaders, or for that matter, by his own senior intelligence officials. Nevertheless, war gaming is in full swing again right now with the bullseye just to the right of our current mess – Iran.

It’s no secret that the U.S. is currently putting the finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iranian nuclear and military facilities. With our ground forces stretched to the breaking point in Iraq and Afghanistan, none of the most likely scenarios involve a ground invasion. Not that this administration wouldn’t prefer to march into the seat of Shiite Islam behind a solid, moving line of M1 Abrams tanks and proclaim the country for democracy. The fact is that even the President knows we can’t pull that off any more so he and the neo-cons will have to settle for Shock and Awe Lite.

If we invade Iran this year it will be done using hundreds of sorties by carrier based aircraft already stationed in the Persian Gulf and from land based aircraft located in Iraq and Qatar. They will strike the known nuclear facilities located in and around Tehran and the rest of the country as well as bases containing major units of the Iranian military, anti-aircraft installations and units of the Revolutionary Guard (a separate and potent Iranian para-military organization).

Will this military action stop Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons? Probably not. It will probably not even destroy all of their nuclear research facilities, the most sensitive of which are known to be underground, protected by tons of earth and reinforced concrete and steel designed to survive almost all attacks using conventional munitions. The Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard will most likely survive as well, although they will suffer significant casualties and major bases and command centers will undoubtedly be destroyed. However, since Iran has both a functioning Air Force, Navy (including submarines) and modern anti-aircraft capabilities, U.S. fighter-bombers will suffer casualties as well. This will not be a “Cake Walk” as with the U.S. led invasion of Iraq in 2003 when the Iraqi Army simply melted away and the Iraqi Air Force never even launched a single aircraft.

Not even close.

If the United States attacks Iran either this summer or this fall, the American people had better be prepared for a shock that may perhaps be even greater to the national psyche (and economy) than 9/11. First of all, there will be significant U.S. casualties in the initial invasion. American jets will be shot down and the American pilots who are not killed will be taken prisoner – including female pilots. Iranian Yakhonts 26, Sunburn 22 and Exocet missiles will seek out and strike U.S. naval battle groups bottled up in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf with very deadly results. American sailors will be killed and U.S. ships will be badly damaged and perhaps sunk. We may even witness the first attack on an American Aircraft carrier since World War II.

That’s just the opening act.

Israel (who had thus far stayed out of the fray by letting the U.S. military do the heavy lifting) is attacked by Hezbollah in a coordinated and large scale effort. Widespread and grisly casualties effectively paralyze the nation, a notion once thought impossible. Iran’s newest ally in the region, Syria, then unleashes a barrage of over 200 Scud B, C and D missiles at Israel, each armed with VX gas. Since all of Israel is within range of these Russian built weapons, Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and virtually all major civilian centers and several military bases are struck, often with a result of massive casualties.

The Israeli Air Force orders all three squadrons of their F-16I Sufa fighter/bombers into the air with orders to bomb Tehran and as many military and nuclear bases as they can before they are either shot down or run out of fuel. It is a one way trip for some of these pilots. Their ancient homeland lies in ruins. Many have family that is already dead or dying. They do not wait for permission from Washington, DC or U.S. regional military commanders. The Israeli aircraft are carrying the majority of their country’s nuclear arsenal under their wings.

Just after the first waves of U.S. bombers cross into Iranian airspace, the Iranian Navy, using shore based missiles and small, fast attack craft sinks several oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, sealing off the Persian Gulf and all its oil from the rest of the world. They then mine the area, making it difficult and even deadly for American minesweepers to clear the straits. Whatever is left of the Iranian Navy and Air Force harasses our Navy as it attempts minesweeping operations. More U.S casualties.

The day after the invasion Wall Street (and to a lesser extent, Tokyo, London and Frankfurt) acts as it always does in an international crisis – irrational speculative and spot buying reaches fever pitch and sends the cost of oil skyrocketing. In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iran, the price of oil goes to $200.00 – $300.00 dollars a barrel on the open market. If the war is not resolved in a few weeks, that price could rise even higher. This will send the price of gasoline at the pump in this country to $8.00-$10.00 per gallon immediately and subsequently to even higher unthinkable levels.

If that happens, this country shuts down. Most Americans are not be able to afford gas to go to work. Truckers pull their big rigs to the side of the road and simply walk away. Food, medicine and other critical products are not be brought to stores. Gas and electricity (what is left of the short supply) are too expensive for most people to afford. Children, the sick and elderly die from lack of air-conditioned homes and hospitals in the summer. Children, the sick and elderly die in the winter for lack of heat. There are food riots across the country. A barter system takes the place of currency and credit as the economy dissolves and banks close or limit withdrawals. Civil unrest builds.

The police are unable to contain the violence and are themselves victims of the same crisis as the rest of the population. Civilian rule dissolves and Martial Law is declared under provisions approved under the Patriot Act. Regular U.S. Army and Marine troops patrol the streets. The federal government apparatus is moved to an unknown but secure location. The United States descends into chaos and becomes a third world country. Its time as the lone superpower is over.

It doesn’t get any worse than this.

Then the first Israeli bomber drops its nuclear payload on Tehran.

David DeBatto is a former U.S. Army Counterintelligence Special Agent, Iraqi war veteran and co-author the “CI” series from Warner Books and the upcoming “Counter to Intelligence” from Praeger Security International.

Link to Original

All The 9/11 Pimp’s Neocons

The presidential campaign of Rudolph Giuliani epitomizes every misery of the Bush era Republican party that is now spontaneously combusting on the big stage for all to see. The intellectual bankruptcy and moral failures of modern ‘conservatism’ have reached the stage of terminal rot and the air is thick with desperation as the GOP tries to emerge intact from the now disastrous Karl Rove era. The symbiotic relationship with the most extreme elements of the Religious Right is coming unraveled, the libertarians are crying bloody murder and the looters are being exposed as the thieves that they always have been. The Republican debates have been an ugly carnival of perversion with a bunch of anal retentive, rich white guys trying to one up each other on how best to torture, shred the constitution and drag the country further down the dark rabbit hole of regression that increasingly resembles a bottomless pit.

The only two candidates with any sort of a legitimate chance at the nomination are Rudy and Fred Thompson aka ‘The New Reagan’, a mush mouthed oaf who specializes in the same sort of ‘Morning in America’ horseshit that was used to lead this country so badly astray in 1980 and whose mass appeal to the rubes can’t be easily dismissed. Thompson however is sleepwalking through it all and you get the impression that his candidacy is more the result of the war pigs at the fascist nest of snakes that is the American Enterprise Institute’s desire to have another malleable tool in the White House than any sincere desire by the great white dope. The minute that his fuck bunny trophy wife stops haranguing him the big lug will likely mail it in and return to his comfortable life as a millionaire lobbyist and character actor so he is really just a bit player in all of this. Rudy is the one who is by far the most dangerous for he is a text book example of the sort of personality examined by Bob Altemeyer in his study The Authoritarians and more recently by John Dean in his book Conservatives Without Conscience.

According to a recent Newsweek piece by Michael Hirsh entitled Would You Buy A Used Hawk From This Man?, Giuliani has stacked his foreign policy team with several neocons of the most virulent type including the granddaddy of them all Norman Podhoretz. Along with the grand old man, also advising Rudy are the virulent racist Daniel Pipes, who once advocated collective punishment in the finest tradition of Lidice by suggesting the razing entire Palestinian villages, and his crony in the neo-McCarthyist Campus Watch goon patrol that targets free speech on America’s campuses, Martin Kramer. Make no mistake though, it’s Podhoretz who brings the real clout to ‘Mr. 9/11’s’ team.Revered by many as the driving force behind the neoconservative ideology, ‘Poddy’ has now found a new host after doing everything but actually blowing George W. Bush to get him to blow Iran to kingdom come. The launching of a ‘preemptive’ attack on Iran is a crusade to which he has on numerous occasions actually admitted praying for.

Here is a small sample from the Newsweek piece:

Podhoretz is in favor of bombing Iran because of the country’s unwillingness to suspend its uranium-enrichment program. He also believes America is engaged in a “world war” with “Islamofascism” and that Giuliani is the only man who can win it. “I decided to join Giuliani’s team because his view of the war—what I call World War IV—is very close to my own,” Podhoretz tells NEWSWEEK. (World War III, in his view, was the cold war.) “And also because he has the qualities of a wartime leader, including a fighting spirit and a determination to win.”

And another helping of some more vintage Podhoretz courtesy of Think Progress:

If we bomb the Iranians as I hope and pray that we will we’ll unleash a wave of anti-Americanism all over the world that will make the anti-Americanism we’ve experienced look like a lovefest.

By the way, there is no such fucking thing as “Islamofascism,” a think tank distilled bit of folderol that just sounds good for the haters and the rubes. In actuality the two main components are diametrically opposed, which anyone who can think critically recognizes right away. The “Islamo” referred to is based on a rejection of modern western civilization and all of it’s perceived evils and impurities, while fascism is very capitalistic in nature and the perfect exemplification of the corporate state to the extent that in 1934 Fortune Magazine featured a cover story and a fawning tribute to Benito Mussolini himself.

But I digress…

Much has been made over Rudy’s having been dissed by radical cleric James Dobson as well as movement guru Richard Viguerie for his failure to toe the theocratic line on suppressing women’s privacy rights, and this is being seen by many as a death blow to his presidential ambitions. Underestimating the American Il Duce is a very serious mistake now that he has apparently decided that his easiest path to the throne will come courtesy of the neocon lunatics along with his bread and butter exploitation of 9/11. Those who would prematurely write off ‘Mr. 9/11’ due to Dobson’s snit are making a tragic error – especially if they include Democratic strategists whose coddling of AIPAC is already responsible for a hell of a blind spot. Rudy’s throwing in with the likes of Podhoretz and the crazies only ensures that the most irrational of all will be jumping aboard the Giuliani campaign as though it were the Rapture Express itself.

The extremist ideology of Podhoretz appeals to a much more dangerous group than the so called ‘values voters’. His maniacal zeal for bombing Iran is a bridge to the Armageddonites who will goosestep to the polls in droves at the mere thought of the potential end of days on the ballot. With nutty Norm helping to dictate Rudy’s foreign policy that plays to the extremely militant death cult affiliated with Pastor John Hagee and his ass kicking Christian Zionist organization CUFI (Christians United for Israel) who have been fired up with lies that bombing Iran is a precursor for the return of Jesus Christ. The Giuliani campaign is already a formidable force, but with Podhoretz onboard Rudy will pull that portion of the vote no matter how he stands on the other divisive social issues and Dobson will have no choice but to swallow his pride and get with Rudy’s program.

The combination of a lower than expected voter turnout due to widespread anger with Democrats over their failure to deliver on their November 2006 mandate to end the war and hold the Bush administration criminals accountable, along with a reenergized Republican base with a lynch mob mentality, could be a boon for Rudy and the neocons and the worst of all possible worlds for the rest of the planet.